Dear Client:
Heading into the second half of the year, 3 Tier Beverages took a moment yesterday to gauge how craft seasonals are faring, via a webinar with its in-house beer analysts alongside Allagash sales director Josh Fructman.
From a high-level perspective, like the rest of craft, and even overall beer, seasonals aren’t looking too hot, with craft seasonal brand fams down 9.1% the latest 52 weeks in NIQ Total US Off Premise scans through 5/17 (by comparison, total craft brand families are down 3.1% over the same frame). Regional craft seasonals have fared even worse, down 16.1%.
Still, “all hope is not lost” for seasonals, 3 Tier consultant and Highland Brewing vet Tim Oldread said. “There are brands that are doing things that are making a difference in seasonal,” Tim said, pointing to Allagash’s “secret sauce” in building a successful seasonal program (more on that below).
SEASONALS “SHINE” IN THE BACK HALF OF THE YEAR; SPRING SHOULD BE “REEVALUATED.” Monthly craft seasonal dollar sales figures shared on the webinar showed “big spikes” in September and October that “kind of hang on through the holidays” with “a huge drop off in January and through spring” that “ramps up into summer,” Tim said.
“Really, the back half of the year is when seasonal shines,” he added, noting many craft brands probably “intuitively” know that, or have seen their own depletion data show “spikes where it starts to drop off.”
When Allagash decided to develop a “more traditional seasonal program,” which it implemented last year, “we really struggled with whether or not to have four or three” seasonal offerings,” Josh said. (Allagash’s current seasonal lineup includes Surf House in summer, Haunted House in fall, and Ski House in winter.)
Ultimately, scan data told the “story,” he said, and with a large footprint across different states “we felt like we could get away with not doing that spring seasonal and extending our windows on our summer seasonal, pulling it forward a little bit, and taking our winter seasonal and extending it further into spring.”
His advice to craft brewers reevaluating their seasonal program? “Spring is definitely a tough time and should be evaluated.”
RTD/FMB IMPACT ON CRAFT SEASONAL SALES. In terms of where craft seasonal dollars are going, “there’s no way” that RTDs and FMBs aren’t “taking share in some regard from craft seasonals,” Tim said, pointing to rolling 52 week velocity change data back to 2022, which shows that as craft seasonal velocity has gone down, prepared cocktails’ and FMB’s velocity has gone up.
“Prepared cocktails, FMBs – they’re really good at flavor [and] they’re really easy to understand” so “they are definitely taking some share away from [craft seasonal] occasions.”
Even though total distribution for RTDs and FMBs has “not grown as much [lately] as it once did” they’re “still in growth mode” in terms of both volume and distribution, Tim added.
STILL AN OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE A NEW “DIEHARD CRAFT CONSUMER.” Turning to NIQ omnishopper data across all outlets the latest 52 weeks through 5/24, 3 Tier analyst Devon Hevener noted that the craft seasonal market is seeing volume losses due to market contraction (-$32.4 million) and net losses to other bev alc categories (-$69 million) attributed to “declines in placements” on shelf.
“It’s that much harder for consumers to come back in, make that repeat purchase,” Devon said of reduced shelf placements that can “force” consumers to go searching for a product they want to repurchase. It’s “more than likely they’re just going to look at that next product on shelf that might be similar pricing, similar flavor, grab it and be on the go.”
Still, “it’s not all bad,” Devon said, pointing to $27 million in expanded sales volumes over the last 52 weeks, “which means that brands are seeing increased shelf space for their craft seasonal products.”
New consumers are still coming into the subcategory too, with over $38 million in craft seasonal sales attributed to net new consumers.
With “a lot of new faces” and “people wanting to try craft seasonal products” there’s “still that potential to create that new diehard craft consumer,” Devon said.
Then too, “shifting” losses/ gains track those within the craft category, with craft seasonal volume losses (-$36.5 million) outpacing gains (+$32.2 million) from other craft categories.
“The consumer is still loyal to craft beer, but we might have lost their attention” when it comes to seasonals, Devon surmised.
Craft consumer trends show they’re leaning into pale lagers, golden ales, pilsners and stouts. “All those are actually the top trending styles currently that we’re seeing craft beer consumers shifting out of their previous category to try.”
ATHLETIC LEADS TOP 10 CRAFT SEASONAL BRANDS. Athletic Brewing leads the top 10 craft seasonal brand families by sales growth over the last three years, up $4.46 million in sales. Rounding out the top five are Allagash (+$1.79 million); Shock Top (+$1.57 million); New Glarus Brewing (+$731,000); and, Berkshire Brewing Co. (+$718,000).
Then too, there are “some really good velocity gains” among Sierra Nevada, Allagash, Lexington Brewing/Alltech’s Kentucky Bourbon Barrel Ale, Creature Comforts, Jack’s Abby and Pelican, Tim said.
ON ALLAGASH’S SHIFT FROM A “SPECIALTY ONE-OFF MODEL” TO A “TRADITIONAL SEASONAL PROGRAM.” Back to Josh, sales director for Allagash.
He offered his take on the thinking behind Allagash’s shift from a “specialty, one-off” model where they developed roughly 100 brews and pilot batches a year, serving many of them in the Maine tasting room only, to a more “traditional seasonal program.”
“Starting last year, we really wanted to take it a step further to capitalize on some of the great beers we were making, really evolving the program into a formal seasonal release structure where these standout pilot beers are just scaled and brought to a wider audience as part of this rotating series,” Josh said. The resulting program “really keeps things fresh for our consumers and relevant for our key retailers.” It’s also easier to manage – utilizing the same UPC code for each of Allagash’s three seasonal releases and fitting the seasonal calendar consumers, retailers and distributors are used to.
Beyond simplifying inventory management for retailers and forecasting for distributors (“we have less out of stocks”), Josh said Allagash’s seasonal program offers consumers clarity of “where and when you might want to enjoy” the offerings that “creates this stronger emotional tie and connection.
“This more cohesive traditional approach helped us get more out of that shelf space by really increasing the accessibility, which led to driving more sales for our seasonal program,” he said.
SURF HOUSE IS UP OVER 52% IN YEAR TWO OF RELEASE. More evidence of Allgash’s seasonal program shift success: Allagash’s seasonal and specialty sales were down nearly 25% in 2023, before the transition; they were up over 670% year-over-year once the new strategy was put in place in 2024.
“That momentum has really held up and continued, as witnessed in the last 52 weeks, we’re up over 425% and our summer seasonal, Surf House, is up over 52% in year two of that release,” Josh said.
Until Monday,
Harry, Jenn, Jordan and Bianca
“The best way out is always through.”
– Robert Frost
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