Dear Client:
In our latest “Around the World with 3 Tier Beverages” Deep Dive, 3 Tier’s Danelle Kosmal takes stock of the non-alcoholic beer segment, where growth remains healthy, even as it continues to moderate.
NA beer dollars are up 9.4% YTD and +10.2% over the latest 13 weeks to August 8 in NIQ off-premise channels. Of course, that’s still a strong showing, particularly against the broader beer category, though it’s a step down from the segment’s pace a year ago.
But as Danelle digs into below, there’s plenty happening beneath that topline — from where NA beer is growing fastest geographically, to the brands and styles driving gains, to how consumers are interacting with the segment and the broader bev alc category, to what NIQ Omnishopper Panel data for the 52 weeks ending July 11 tells us about the segment’s buyers.
And with NA beer continuing to attract new buyers while facing more competition across the broader non-alc space, there’s plenty to consider about where the segment goes from here.
Take it away, Danelle.
NA BEER GROWTH MODERATES, BUT REMAINS STRONG. While NA beer “growth trajectory continues to moderate, performance remains firmly positive and well above category trends,” Danelle opens. NA beer dollar sales are up 9.4% YTD, with a slight acceleration to 10.2% for the latest 13 weeks.
“However, this slight bump in growth for the summer months falls behind the double-digit growth of the same 13-week period last year, which was +15.7%.”
Geographically, NA beer is growing at a faster rate in the East and West South Central divisions (14.8% and 15.7%), as well as the Mid Atlantic (+13.6%).
Growth rates are the slowest in New England (+5.2%) and Pacific (+8.3%) – “the two divisions where NA is most developed,” Danelle points out. In New England, for example, NA beer accounts for 3.8% of off-premise beer dollars, more than double its 1.7% share at the national level, “driven in great part by Athletic’s strength in their home market,” she notes. And even with slower growth rates in New England, NA beer gained half a share point in the region, “suggesting the segment still has room to grow even in its most developed markets.”
SUPER PREMIUM NA BIGGEST GROWTH DRIVER. Across segments, super premium NA was the biggest growth driver, up 53%, with Mich Ultra Zero driving that trend, followed by imports (+9.8%) and craft (+2.8%).
With craft and imports “positioned as the most premium-priced players” (average case price of $42.57 and $42.11 respectively for the latest 13 weeks), super premium pricing of $35.37 has “essentially created a new, more mainstream price tier in NA beer,” Danelle highlights.
Diving into NA pricing around the country, she calls out that New England is “the most premium-priced market for craft, and among the highest for imports.” Import prices are “highest in West South Central ($44.29), Mid Atlantic ($44.05), and New England ($42.49).” Meanwhile, “super premium peaks at only $38.02 in the Mid Atlantic, highlighting that geographic premiumization is much stronger for crafts.”
NA BEER STILL DOMINATES, BUT LOSING SOME GROUND; NA RTDS CATCHING ON. For the latest 13 weeks, NA beer accounted for 82.4% of NA adult beverage dollars, a slight improvement from its 80.5% YTD share. But zoom out a bit, and NA beer is giving up some ground to the rest of the NA adult beverage category, with its share down 1.1 points from 83.6% during the same 13-week period a year ago.
NA wine still ranks as the no. 2 segment in the space with 9.9 points of share in the latest 13 weeks, and spirits isn’t far behind with a 7.7 share. But factor in NA RTDs and the picture starts to look a little different.
Indeed, NA RTDs are up 34.9% over the 13-week stretch (+37.9% YTD), and when you add up all NA RTDs, they account for a 7.1 share of the category in the latest 13 weeks.
Strip RTDs out of the other segments, and NA beer accounts for 81.5% of the category over the latest 13 weeks, followed by NA wine at 9.7% and NA spirits at just 1.7%.
LIGHTER STYLES LEAD SUMMER GROWTH FOR NA BEER. In terms of styles, “lighter styles were the summer growth drivers (latest 13 weeks) for NA beer,” with light lagers and American lagers as “the top two styles for actual dollar growth.” And the growth in light lagers “was driven nearly entirely by Mich Ultra Zero,” according to Danelle.
FIVE BRANDS DRIVE 70% OF NA BEER GROWTH. Drilling down to specific brands, a handful are driving a majority of growth in NA beer. For the latest 13 weeks, the top five growth-driving brands in NIQ off-premise channels were Mich Ultra, Athletic, Corona, Modelo, and Bero, Danelle lists, and “combined, these brands account for 70% of growth in NA beer.” However, “Mich Ultra alone is driving nearly half (47%) of growth.
“While the list shifts some across the country, in nearly every census division Mich Ultra, Athletic, and one of the Constellation brands (Corona or Modelo) were top growth drivers for NA beer, with the exception of the Pacific division, where Athletic is less prominent and Corona and Modelo have a larger impact on growth,” Danelle adds.
Then too, innovation continues to contribute to growth, with 23% of NA beer dollars from the latest 13 weeks coming from products that were released in the past two years. As with innovation in the rest of the category, “flavor is a driving trend,” with top new products highlighting lime and chelada flavors (e.g. Mich Ultra Zero Lime, Modelo Chelada Limon y Sal NA).
NEW BUYERS FUEL GROWTH, BUT RETAINED BUYER SPEND SLIPS. “While the increasing popularity of moderation continues to be a hot topic, purchase data from NIQ Omnishopper Panel indicates that NA beer buyers are becoming more engaged in the category, and are increasing their spend across beer, wines, spirits,” Danelle writes. The average spend of beer among NA beer buyers is up $7.46 for the 52-week period ending 7/11/26 compared to the previous year.
“As we would expect from an emerging category, nearly half of NA beer dollars are from new buyers to NA beer (meaning they purchased NA beer in the latest year, but not the previous year).
One slight watchout is with the retained NA beer buyers (those who purchased last year and this year), as their average spend per buyer on NA beer has declined slightly (down approximately $1.00) from this year compared to last year. This is due to a slight decline in the number of purchases or trips they are taking to buy NA beer. This requires a gentle callout to NA beer suppliers and retailers to ensure they are engaging drinkers and providing reminders for NA beer occasions.”
WHAT IT MEANS FOR NA BEER’S NEXT LEG OF GROWTH. Closing out with some final thoughts and implications, Danelle points to three key takeaways.
“Mich Ultra Zero has opened a new competitive lane. Super premium’s rise as a de facto mainstream price tier means consumers no longer have to choose between high-end craft and imports or the value end of NA beer. There’s now real space in the middle, and it’s currently a one-brand market to beat.
“Retention needs its own playbook. With nearly half of NA beer dollars coming from first-time buyers but repeat-buyer spend softening, the growth story is increasingly about acquisition outpacing loyalty. Occasion-based marketing and reminder-driven activation (not just new-buyer trial) could help to secure and improve engagement of returning buyers.
“NA RTDs are a category-adjacent threat, not just a curiosity. Beer’s declining share of NA adult beverage dollars — even amid its own growth — suggests the industry should watch whether NA RTD innovation (flavor-forward, lower-commitment formats) is siphoning off occasions from moderation-minded drinkers.”
BEER BREAKS FIVE-WEEK STREAK OF 2%-PLUS DECLINES
After a five-week run of category dollar declines greater than 2%, beer snapped that streak in the latest week of Circana scans to August 23 — albeit barely — with dollars down 1.8%.
In issuing the latest results, Circana’s Scott Scanlon wrote, “This week could be summed up simply by stating Beer top growth leaders helped drive less negativity for the overall category.”
MICHELOB, WHITE CLAW AND BUSCH STAY IN THE BLACK; MODELO JOINS IN. And indeed, some of beer’s biggest brand families delivered. Michelob led the way among the top 10, with dollars up 5.6%; White Claw chipped in 3.5% growth; Busch provided a 2.5% bump; and perhaps most notably, Modelo — still the top beer brand fam in scans by dollars — was back in the black for the week, up 1.3%.
10 DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWERS ACROSS AN ARRAY OF SEGMENTS. Beyond the top 10 brand fams, strong double-digit growth rolled on from beer brands across a variety of segments, including:
Non-alc beer, where Michelob Zero grew 63.1%, Athletic jumped 15.3% and Heineken 0.0 increased 14.1%, helping drive the entire NA beer segment to 16.1% growth on the week;
Imports, where Victoria grew 26.5% and Pacifico increased 16.8%, which, along with Modelo’s aforementioned bump, helped lift the overall segment 0.5%;
Cider, where Angry Orchard grew 13.9%, helping drive the overall segment to a 2.1% gain;
FMBs, where Clubtails and Four Loko each posted increases north of 13%, though the overall segment remained firmly in the red, down 4.7%;
And craft, where New Belgium grew 15% and Shiner increased 11.7%, though overall craft ain’t shaking declines either, down 3.7% during the week.
10 DOUBLE-DIGIT DROPPERS TOO, ACROSS A RANGE OF SEGMENTS. Yet while the week produced 10 double-digit growers across an array of segments, it delivered just as many double-digit droppers, also spread across the beer landscape.
Sam Adams (-13.3%), Blue Moon (-12.6%), Leinie’s (-11.1%) and Founders (-10.3%) posted some of the toughest trends in craft; Seagram’s Escapes (-13.3%) and Mike’s Hard (-21.9%) delivered some of the roughest results among FMBs; Milwaukee’s Best (-12.4%) and Icehouse (-10.9%) were among the biggest decliners in sub-premium; Dos Equis (-10.7%) notched the largest decline among imports; and Truly (-20.6%) led the losses in hard seltzer.
All in, 21 of the top 50 beer brand fams grew dollars during the week, while 29 declined. Ten grew double digits and 10 declined double digits. And four beer segments finished in the black: NA beer (+16.1%), super premium (+4.3%), cider (+2.1%) and imports (+0.5%); while five declined: sub-premium (-2.2%), hard seltzer (-2.7%), craft (-3.7%), FMBs (-4.7%) and premium (-5.9%).
TOTAL CATEGORY TALLIES. That mix brought overall beer to a 1.8% decline during the week, ahead of its latest four-week trend (-2.4%), right in line with its latest 12-week trend (-1.8%), and a skosh behind its 26-week trend (-1.2%).
Spirits, meanwhile, grew 3.3% on the week, driven in part by premixed cocktails, up nearly 23%. That’s roughly in line with spirits’ latest four-week trend (+3.5%), but behind its latest 12-week (+5.1%) and 26-week (+4.8%) trends.
Wine declined 2.6% during the week, roughly in line with its latest four-, 12- and 26-week trends.
And total bev alc fell 1% on the week, just ahead of its four-week trend (-1.3%), but behind its 12-week (-0.6%) and 26-week (-0.4%) trends.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TILL LABOR DAY. Looking ahead, Scott reminds that it’s “only a couple weeks now until the Labor Day holiday weekend data” and football has already begun kicking off with college and NFL preseason action. And until that holiday data arrives, he “would be surprised if a trend change of significance develops.”
MC PROVIDES PEEK AT FOOTBALL PLAYBOOK FOR MIDWEST
Molson Coors chief Rahul Goyal has hammered the point since taking the top job that “beer is a very, very local business,” and with football approaching, the company’s blog is touting what that means in practice, highlighting how its “brands are strapping in for [the] season” across Indiana, Iowa and Illinois.
Perhaps nowhere is that more apparent than Indiana, where Molson Coors is riding the reigning national champion Hoosiers’ football high with its “first-ever Indiana University-branded Coors Light cans.” The company has also redesigned Indiana University Coors Light packaging to feature the school’s stripes, “invested in using the official Indiana championship logo” for new POS materials, and is “adding a new Coors Light-wrapped trailer and more tap handles to serve fans at the stadium this season.”
Up the road in South Bend, Molson Coors is also building on year two of its Notre Dame alliance, debuting Notre Dame-branded Coors Light packaging and cans for “the first time” this season.
Then in Illinois, the company is leveraging its Chicago Bears alliance with Miller Lite packaging “across the state to win the strongest placements,” while in Iowa it is leaning on its Iowa State partnership “to keep Molson Coors brands front of mind” for its fan base.
Of course, football season arrives at a time when MC could use some momentum in the off-premise. Its largest brand, Coors Light, is down 3.1% in dollars YTD in Circana MULC scans through August 9, with the decline nearing 5% in the latest four weeks. Trends are a little tougher for its no. 2 brand, Miller Lite, with dollars down 5.1% YTD and -6.5% in the latest four weeks. Banquet, however, is still rocking, with dollars up 11.4% in both frames. Yet overall, MC is down 3.6% YTD, with the decline widening to 5.2% in the latest four weeks.
Until tomorrow,
Jenn, Jordan, Bianca, and Harry
“We know what we are, but know not what we may be.”
– William Shakespeare
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SUMMIT RETURNING TO THE BREAKERS. Our 24th Annual Beer, Wine & Spirits Summit will be held January 18 – 19, 2027, and will return to the historic Breakers in Palm Beach, FL. Learn more and get your early-bird tickets here.
———- Sell Day Calendar ———-
Today’s Sell Day: 1
Sell days this month: 22
Sell days this month last year: 22
This month ends on a: Wed.
This month last year ended on a: Tues.
YTD sell days Over/Under: 0
