Dear Client:
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the latest CGA on-premise report (covering the week to October 30) is not that the channel’s sales velocity is flying above the same week last year, up 46%, or that it’s above 2019 too, up 21%.
Nope, those trends are great, but what’s more noteworthy is how the channel has struggled to keep up with sales velocity from weeks prior, as it experienced “slight single figure declines over the last two weeks.” Why’s that significant?
Well, the velocity reduction in recent weeks seems to suggest to CGA that the on-premise is following its old ebbs and flows. “From our back-data, we can see that the exact same dip came in 2020 and 2019 too showing that the market appears to have hit the ‘new normal’ stage perhaps a bit earlier than we all expected,” said CGA.
The struggle to surmount the prior week’s comps — while blowing past 2019 and 2020 sales velocities — also played out in all the key states tracked by CGA (Florida, Illinois, California, New York and Texas). Take a look…
Coming off a flat week to October 23, Florida sales velocity has dipped into negative territory in the latest week, down 3%. Still, velocity in the state is up 20% over November 2, 2019 and up 31% vs. the same week in 2020.
In Illinois, sales velocity is down double digits compared to the week prior in 2021, driven by trends in Chicago, down 14%. Yet the state “continues to perform well vs 2019 (+8%) and is +108% up on 2020 velocity due to the increasing Covid restrictions at the time.”
“Overall trends for California over the latest weeks have been slightly negative, with (-2%) in the week to October 23 followed by (-6%) in the latest week,” per CGA. But sales velocity is still outpacing 2019, up 28%, and blowing past last year, up 49%.
After seven weeks of growth, New York has experienced “a velocity reduction of -1% and -7% in the last two weeks.” Though the state is well above 2020, up 76%, “as there were Covid restrictions at this time,” and is still up over 2019 (+2%).
Finally, in Texas, the Lone Star State, like every other state above, saw sales velocity drop vs. the prior week, down 8%. But velocity is still flying above 2020, up 30%, and “it is the best performing key state vs. 2019 (+32%).
LION CLEARED TO BUY PARENT COMPANY OF POPULAR AUSTRALIAN BREWERY, STONE & WOOD
Kirin’s Lion, a global brewing giant, has received the greenlight to get a little bit bigger.
The company — which produces many macro beer brands and owns craft brands like New Belgium, London-based Fourpure Brewing, and Australia’s Little Creatures among others — has been cleared to buy a popular portfolio of craft beer brands in Australia that includes Stone & Wood, known as Fermentum.
The takeover, revealed back in September, was cleared by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission earlier this week after an investigation found that “many more craft brewers will remain,” per Australian Associated Press.
The deal, which carries a reported price tag of AUS$500 million, will award Lion with a “rapidly expanding” portfolio of brands that includes prized Australian craft company Stone & Wood, as well as Two Birds, Fixation, Forest for the Trees and Sunly seltzer.
BEER BRIEF:
BURLINGTON BEER CO. “FINALLY” SETS UP SHOP IN BURLINGTON. Burlington Beer Co. is “finally living up to its name,” reports the Burlington Free Press, as the brewer has finally set up shop in Burlington, Vermont. Indeed, the brewer, which has operated out of the neighboring town, Williston, since 2014, has just opened a new 14,000-square foot space in downtown Burlington. The new digs include a taproom/restaurant with 48 draft lines, and space to house the brewery’s sour, “funky barrel” program, Burlington chief Joe Lemnah told the outlet, “with 48 red- and white-wine barrels to age lambic-inspired brews.” Joe told the paper that he will keep the “bulk of brewing operations in Williston, where he plans another $1-million expansion to add 10 more brew tanks,” and brew more “brown, pale and amber ales and saisons.”
Until Monday,
Harry, Jenn and Jordan
“He who laughs, lasts!”
– Mary Pettibone Poole
———- Sell Day Calendar ———-
Today’s Sell Day: 5
Sell days this month: 22
Sell days this month last year: 21
This month ends on a: Tues.
This month last year ended on a: Mon.
YTD sell days Over/Under: -1
