Dear Client:
Faithful CBD readers won’t be shocked to learn that the total non-alcoholic (“NA”) segment is growing; it’s up more than 16% YTD (in Nielsen US xAOC plus liquor and convenience, YTD for the week ended 10/9). Those gains come against a backdrop of a slowed category: Total beer/FMB/cider is down 3.3% in dollars YTD.
But what may be a little more surprising is that non-alc craft offerings are driving much of the NA segment’s growth, despite the entrance of big-name beers like Budweriser Zero or Heineken 0.0.
As Sean LaDouce of 3-Tier Beverages describes it, “as far as ‘White Space’ in the category, the vast majority of growth is coming from craft NA offerings. This signals a shift in the shopper/consumer profile for NA compared to years past. Brands like Athletic Brewing are appealing to the shopper/consumer who is after the taste profile of a craft beer, without the ABV.”
Indeed, people seem to want not just non-alc beers, but moreover, non-alc craft beers (i.e. IPAs). Then, too, “consumers are drinking NA beers in expanded occasion types,” he says.
THIS IS A 6-PACK PARTY. What else is fueling the non-alc party? 6 packs.
Indeed, Sean shares that “6pks represent 75.3% mix of package size” within the NA category’s YTD dollar sales.
Despite that base, 6-pack NAs are up almost 28% YTD in dollars, and more than 16% in volume.
The chasm between 6-pack NA’s volume and dollar trends is mainly due to price increases on that particular pack. In fact, “6pk NA avg unit price has increased by +10.1%” YTD, said Sean, while the larger beer/FMB/cider 6-pack average unit price increase YTD is 2.6%.
Sean reflected on that outsized 6-pack NA price increase.
He “truly believes” that 6-pack NAs are such an underdeveloped segment “that the suppliers and retailers are trying to establish what that ‘breakeven’ price point truly is at the intersection of the supply-demand curve.
“Currently, it appears that shoppers/consumers are willing to pay nearly the same for a 6pk craft NA as they do for a full ABV 6pk, which is something that has never existed in the beer category.”
On the other hand, 12-pack NAs are not nearly as hot. They, too have seen price increases this year — but more in line with the larger category, as 12-pack NA average unit price is up +2.4% YTD.
Total NA 12-pack unit volumes are down 8.6% YTD.
TOP SALES GROWTH BRAND FAMILIES. Sean also shared some of the top brand families for non-alc dollar sales growth, for the same time period. They are:
- Athletic Brewing Co. (+428%)
- BrewDog (+128.9%)
- Two Roots Brewing Co (+123.3%)
- Brooklyn Brewing (+107.3%)
- Golden Road Brewing (+102.6%)
He shared top non-alc new brands as well:
- Lagunitas IPA NA ($4.6 million in YTD Sales)
- Samuel Adams Just Haze IPA NA ($2.78 million in YTD Sales)
- Dogfish Head Lemon Quest Wheat NA ($234.9K YTD Sales)
- Karbach Free and Easy IPA NA ($369.3K YTD Sales)
BEER BRIEFS:
BA REQUIRES PROOF OF VACCINATION FOR EVENTS IN ’22. Over the weekend, we heard news that the Brewers Association is now requiring people to get vaccinated for its 2022 events — curious, since they did not require that for this year’s Craft Brewers Conference. We reached out to the organization and a spokesperson confirmed: “Yes, all events and competitions will have this requirement. A proof of vaccine requirement requires a lot of planning and operational details. Many more standard procedures and resources for successfully implementing this requirement are now available than previously,” she explained.
Until tomorrow,
Harry, Jenn and Jordan
“Why do they call it rush hour when nothing moves?” — Robin Williams
———- Sell Day Calendar ———-
Today’s Sell Day: 6
Sell days this month: 22
Sell days this month last year: 21
This month ends on a: Tues.
This month last year ended on a: Mon.
YTD sell days Over/Under: -1
