Dear Client:
A near 20-week streak of dollar growth in IRI multi-outlet and convenience scans has come to an end for the beer category.
The category saw dollars decline 0.5% in the latest weekly cut from IRI to November 20, marking its first down week in dollars since the lead up week to July 4.
While beer’s streak ended in this latest week, spirits’ streak rolled on.
The spirits category saw its dollars grow 5.2% in the latest week, marking its 26th straight week of dollar growth (the last down week the category had was the week ending May 22 earlier this year).
Wine, which has seen more streaking in the red this year, also had a down week in the latest set of data, down 0.8%.
Looking at the latest 52-week trends for the three major categories, we see beer dollars up just a hair (+0.1); spirits posting low-single-digit growth in dollars, up 1.7%; and total wine down 3.3% over the 52-week frame.
STILL PLENTY OF ROBUST DOLLAR GROWTH IN LATEST FOUR WEEK NIELSEN SCANS, HOWEVER
While the latest week of data from IRI painted a soft picture for overall beer, a broader four-week cut from NielsenIQ scans to November 19, still showed robust dollar growth for much of beer.
The category was up 5.5% in dollars for the four weeks, with several standout dollar trends found in segments, suppliers and brand fams. Let’s take a look:
FMBS UP DOUBLE DIGITS. For segments, we saw FMBs notch a whopping 20.1% growth trend over the four weeks, and post the highest dollar share gain from a segment over the frame, up a full share point.
BELOW PREMIUMS UP BIG, TOO. Then too, below premium was knocking on the door of double-digit growth for the four weeks, up 9.8% and gaining 0.5 points of dollar share, positioning it as the third-highest share gainer over the frame, behind only imports (up 0.8 points and +9.3% for the four weeks).
For suppliers, Constellation continued to lead the way in growth, up 12.5% in dollars and up a full share point for the four weeks. But a handful of other suppliers all posted high-single digit growth over the frame, like Diageo Beer Co (+9%); Mark Anthony Brands (+8.1%); Pabst Brewing (+7.4%) and Molson Coors (+7.1%).
And for brand fams, we saw quite a bit notching double-digit growth in dollars over the frame, like: Twisted Tea, up 37%; New Belgium, up 29.2%; Busch, up 14.6%; Coors Banquet, up 14.2%; the Miller brand fam, up 13.6%; Smirnoff, up 13.1%; Modelo, up 12.8%; Mich Ultra, up 11.5%; Corona, up 11.1%; and Mike’s, up 10%.
WHO’S DONE BOTH THIS YEAR IN SCANS?
When talking about growth, the question as of late is: who’s doing both?
Actually that’s just a rhyme we couldn’t pass up. The real question as of late is simply, who’s growing volume in scans? Cause if you’re growing volume in this environment you’re bound to be growing dollars. Indeed, with all the price increases over the year, many have posited that volume growth, not dollar growth, is the better indicator of overall health right now in scans.
So, in an effort to highlight the “healthiest” bunch from 2022 thus far, we peered into the latest set of NielsenIQ scans stretching to November 19, to see who’s pulled off volume growth YTD.
THE SEGMENTS, SUPPLIERS AND BRAND FAMS PULLING OUT VOLUME GROWTH YTD. Starting at the top with segments, we see only three have shown volume growth over the year:
- Imports, up 4.7% YTD and up 1.4 points in overall beer volume share
- FMBs, up 9% YTD and up 0.7 points in share
- And super premiums, up 1.1% YTD and up 0.5 points
For top suppliers, just a pair have recorded volume growth this year:
- Constellation up 8.6% — up 1.5 points
- Diageo Beer Co. up 0.6% — up 0.1 points
And finally, when it comes to brands, we spotted about 10 of the top brand families in beer that have notched volume growth over the year. Ranking those in order of volume share gains, we see:
- The Modelo brand family at the top, having snagged 1.2 points of beer volume share over the year, and up 15.2% in volume YTD
- The Mich Ultra brand fam, up 0.6 points in volume share, and up 5.5% YTD
- Twisted Tea, up 0.4 points, and up 25.6% in volume
- Corona brand fam, up 0.3 points, and up 3% in volume YTD
- Busch brand fam, up 0.2 points in share, and flat in volume
And we have a handful of brands that have snagged 0.1 points of volume share over the year, like:
- New Belgium, up 13% in volume
- Smirnoff, up 4%
- Coors Banquet, up 3.6%
- And Mike’s, up 0.3%
OCTOBER DOMESTIC SHIPMENTS SEE WORST TRENDS OF SECOND HALF
Speaking of volume: October domestic shipments just hit, down 5.3% to 12.9 million barrels. That’s among the worst showing for the second half, behind only July’s 5.5% dip. It also follows two of the year’s best months: September was down only 0.9%, and August had the best showing of the year so far, up 2.4%.
The most recent tally brings the YTD trend to -4.1%, to 137.2 million barrels.
MAKE IT SIX STRAIGHT MONTHS OF CONTRACTING BEER ORDERS WITH LATEST BPI
There continues to be a “pessimistic outlook” for the beer industry as we head down the home stretch of 2022, per the NBWA’s latest Beer Purchasers’ Index.
Indeed, after hitting a year-low reading of 37 in October, the latest BPI for the month of November nudged up just a point to 38 for total beer – marking the sixth straight month of contracting beer orders.
Still, the index for “at-risk” inventory for the latest month did fall back below the magic mark of 50, at 49 — following a year-high reading for “at-risk” inventory in October, at 56.
“This continuation of lower BPI readings and low ‘at-risk’ inventory are indicative of lower expected sales following fall price increases, news of increasing layoffs and a general slowing of the U.S. economy,” NBWA chief economist Lester Jones said in detailing the latest BPI findings.
As for orders on segments, we see that imports continue to be the lone segment in expansion territory, posting a reading of 59, but below where it stood last November, at 68.
Below premium continues to be right on the cusp of expansion territory, posting a reading of 47 in this latest month, well above where it was last November, at 29.
Premium Lights aren’t too far behind, registering a reading of 41, which nonetheless falls short of its posting last November, at 54.
And premium regular (30), cider (28), craft (25) and FMB/seltzer (16) are all well short of the magic mark, and below the readings they posted this time last year.
CONGRESSWOMEN ASK TTB HOW THEY WILL PREVENT BIG SODA BEV ALC BRANDS’ POTENTIAL UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES
Already, two topical and convergent stories — the TTB’s new labeling rulemaking, and Coke’s reported move to compensate bottlers for bev alc brands — have spurred Truth Squadders to point us in the direction of a related development: Congresswomen’s concern over the entry of mega non-alc brands into the bev alc space.
Indeed, the office of California Congresswoman Linda T. Sánchez posted a press release in mid-October reproaching big soda’s flop into bev alc, and demanding the TTB will ensure such players’ proper regulation. And they want details.
Rep. Sánchez was joined by Congresswoman Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH) in penning a letter to the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau last month, “requesting that new entrants into the alcohol industry – namely large soft drink corporations – comply with the same regulations that existing alcohol manufacturers, distributors, and retailers already abide by,” per press release.
In the actual letter to TTB administrator Mary G. Ryan, the congresswomen worry that new bev alc entrants “including large soft drink corporations,” have “widespread consumer recognition among all age groups for their household brands.” But they argue that “these brands have gained consumer recognition without the complex regulatory structure that makers of alcoholic beverages must comply with.”
And they recognize it’s a trend. “In recent months, press reports have indicated that large soft drink companies are launching alcoholic versions of some of their longstanding and well-established brands, including one particular beverage with significant if not primary appeal to consumers under the age of 21,” per note.
They bring up the slotting fee elephant, too: “For years, large soft drink producers have paid retailers millions of dollars annually to secure shelf space for their soft drink brands,” per letter. “We understand state regulators are asking questions about the propriety of these arrangements and it is an open question if they will continue. However, should large soft drink companies be allowed to sell their alcoholic and nonalcoholic products in the same store, we would like to obtain a clear understanding how TTB plans to manage this complex regulatory situation.”
They requested responses “in writing” to five main items, many tied to potential preferential treatment stemming from big soda slotting fees, as well as potential market confusion. They seek details about :
1. How the TTB is preventing new entrants, especially “large soft drink companies,” from “circumventing prohibitions on unfair trade practices, including by leveraging slotting fees to retailers for their non-alcoholic beverages/products to gain preferential treatment for their alcoholic products?”
2. What the TTB is doing to ensure alcohol producers and wholesalers don’t provide things of value to retailers “in the case where large soft drink companies are now selling alcohol to the very same retailers to whom they provide, at no cost, soft drink versions of such items of value?” (Such as equipment or actual product.)
3. How the TTB is enforcing its ban on alcohol producers conducting cooperative advertising with retailers “in the case where large soft drink companies sell alcohol products to the very same retailers with whom they are conducting cooperative advertising campaigns for non-alcohol products?” (You can see many of these queries seem more rhetorical than actual inquiries.)
4. How the TTB is addressing potential consumer confusion “regarding alcohol products” that sport brand names and “other visual cues” similar to “soft drink products that are popular with consumers under 21 years old.”
5. And finally, they asked the TTB how it is coordinating with other regulators (down to how such interactions are “managed”), including at the state level and with the FTC, to enforce trade practices guidelines and prevent consumer confusion.
BEER BRIEF:
CORRECTION FROM BEERBOARD ON THANKSGIVING EVE STATS. Citing a “tryptophan hangover,” BeerBoard has issued a correction to its Thanksgiving Eve stats from yesterday that fortunately paints a much more comforting picture of draft beer orders over the night. Recall, the initial report stated that draft volume this Thanksgiving Eve not only failed to lap the previous Thanksgiving Eve in 2021, but the regular Wednesday from the week prior as well (a concerning look for draft on what is widely considered the biggest party night of the year). But have no fear, BeerBoard stated today “the on-premise DID INDEED experience a serious lift in draft volume when comparing week-over-week (Nov 23 v Nov 16),” as “Thanksgiving Eve saw growth of +45% when compared against the previous Wednesday.” (But as initially reported, draft volume was “down -17% when looking at Thanksgiving Eve year-over-year (2022 v 2021). Remember, 2021 saw a huge increase in draft volume as the country was opening back up from Covid restrictions.”)
Until tomorrow,
Harry, Jenn, Jordan & Bianca
“Take what you can use and let the rest go by.”
– Ken Kesey
———- Sell Day Calendar ———-
Today’s Sell Day: 22
Sell days this month: 22
Sell days this month last year: 22
This month ends on a: Wed.
This month last year ended on a: Tues.
YTD sell days Over/Under: 0
